The 2002 Hype Cycle has been published by research firm Gartner. It highlights patterns of overreactions, “typically originated by unrealistic expectations and reinforced by media effects.”
Biometrics confirm a person’s identity based on physical or behavioural characteristics– e.g. fingerprint, voice and retina recognition . They have been used as means of system access control, airport security and surveillance. Gartner considers that the hype over biometrics has peaked. “The complexity and privacy implications of biometric processing will continue” as a “roadblock to adoption through 2005.”
Grid computing knits together geographically dispersed and distributed computers to create a single massive computing resource, with the aim of taking advantage of spare processing power. Expectations are inflated, says Gartner.
Web services are the next iteration of the ASP (application service provider) model. They allow modular business services to be delivered over the internet when required. Gartner dilutes the hype with questions over security and trust.
Among the technologies on the rise are:
Personal fuel cells - a better alternative to batteries. Gartner predicts they will hold a 30% market share for mobile consumer electronic devices by 2010.
Electronic tags - devices that store data which can be wirelessly read or written. an alternative to bar codes.
Nanocomputing or nanotech - making computing devices at the atomic level, blurring chemistry and physics. Gartner reckons that nanotransistors will not begin to compete with silicon rivals until after 2010.
Identity services - such as Sun's Liberty Alliance and Microsoft's Passport. Unlikely to be widely accepted before 2005, says Gartner.
Gartner noted some technologies falling into the “trough of disillusionment”: WAP, PDA phones and peer-to-peer computing.
Those leaving the trough on the “slope of enlightenment” include speech recognition, e-payments, PKI, Bluetooth and VoIP.
Those on the favoured “plateau of productivity” include Wireless LANs/802.11 and Virtual Private Networks.
The firm concludes:
"All organisations should consider early adoption of new technologies that support key business imperatives. Enterprises should avoid engaging into a technology just because it is at the peak of inflated expectations or disengaging just because disillusionment has set in."
